Monthly Returns for July Updated

As the days continue to drag getting back to double-digit annual growth, I have to keep updating my position and Monthly Returns.

Blogging about the Thrift Savings Plan with a limit on Interfund Transfers restrict me from elaborating on my views of the economy. I would like all of the readers to know that even though I have cutback on my posts, I will still inform everyone on my position as it relates to the TSP.

The overall condition of the market I would say has worsened if anything. The slight increase in unemployment and housing numbers still declining, make for an extremely volatile market for the rest of the year. On a brighter note, I like the fact that Crude Oil is correcting and continues to play a positive roll in the market.

Over the next couple of weeks I will be watching for an exit point back to the G Fund. This move will be based on pure technical analysis as we approach the 200-Day Moving Average. I firmly believe the S&P 500 will not pass the 1375 range over the next couple of months. If my opinion holds true and I can exit close to this number, there will be another chance to buy back the C & S Funds at a lower price.

My position in the Thrift Savings Plan as of the close on Aug 08, 2008:

G Fund- 0%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 50%
S Fund- 50%
I Fund- 0%

Comments are Welcome!

Monthly Returns For June Have Been Updated

After one of the worst beatings since 2002, I have finally come to my senses and updated my monthly returns. It is hard to blog about the Thrift Savings Plan when nearly all of the Funds are taking a beating except the G and F Funds.

I must say that June was not what I had expected by any stretch of the imagination. Looking on the bright side of life, I have bought into the market well below the highs hit back in Oct 07'. Still with all of the volatility in the market, I know that we can't be too far from the bottom.

Normally I like to jump around in the market but with the huge swings, I think that I will stay put in the C and S Fund for at least a month or two. Let me give you my opinion on what is not seen by the media currently that will jump start a rally later this year:

1. Everyone that didn't buy real estate in 2005-present are waiting patiently to release a huge flood of demand on the market next year and into 2010.

2. Stimulus payments haven't been fully realized, and will begin to hit earnings in the 3rd and 4th quarter this year.

3. Financials have been beaten down so bad that the fundamentals don't seem to even match up anymore. (Look for a 10% plus run in the next couple of months)

There are a few more items not listed, but I don't want to start controversy so we will wait and see! (Short Position, Pres. Elect, Olympics, etc.)

The Worst May Be Behind Us?

I know that its been awhile since my last post, but I have been riding this downturn in the TSP and have waited for it to move higher. The price of Crude Oil is pushing all of the stock market indexes lower. This does not help the situations with the foreclosures on the real estate market which is good for some but horrible for the economy.

The price of the stock market equities in general are extremely oversold. When the money makers decide to pull the plug on the Oil Futures, the stock market will fly! I know that this month I have been hammered on my TSP Account but I GUARANTEE I will beat the S & P 500 for the 8th consecutive year on December 31st. The people that are sitting on the sidelines at this point have to be itching to pull the trigger on the BUY button. If they don't do it soon they will miss out on one of the best buying opportunities of the year. My opportunity of the year will be next year when I decide to pick up one of the foreclosures on the market out here in California. The foreclosures have flooded this state creating one of the best opportunities to own a home in many years. This may be another reason that the S & P 500 continues to drift lower, but I will let you know what else I'm playing to hedge my Thrift Savings Plan.

There are items in the stock market known as ETF's. An ETF is an Exchange-Traded Fund that I play such as the OIH, DUG, UYG, and SKF to hedge against my TSP account. Now as you all know, I am just an amateur and I have no professional ties nor promote any specific brokerages, trades, stocks, or TSP Funds. So I will let you know how I perform the trades for my own personal gains. When you see inventory reports for crude oil recently, two of the above ETF's tracked the oil and gas or close to it. After watching the crude oil rise on any type of report (good or bad) over the past few months, I knew it was due to crack. This crack happened last week when the surplus was announced. In one day, I made 6% trading DUG. The next day, Goldman Sacks downgraded a few financial companies sending the UYG lower, I hopped on the SKF Exchange-Traded Fund and made another 8% in two days. Next week I will be riding the UYG train (at least 5%) so it will give you an idea how easy it is to offset minimal losses on my Thrift Savings Plan.

The hedge I use against my TSP is called shorting, when an investor(s) believes that the market will head lower in the future. I hedge my Thrift Savings Plan by playing some sectors short and some sectors Ultra (2x) so that when the market rebound, my returns are multiplied times 2. I still firmly believe that my TSP will hit double digit returns this year but I may have to wait until the end of July or early August to make another positive interfund transfer or profit collecting.

I thought that the markets bottom was in the 1340 range for the S & P 500. Instead of my prediction holding true, it has been thrown out of the window due to many financial companies being downgraded in the last couple of weeks coupled with increasing oil prices. So with that being said, I will still sit on this Bull ride or lack there of until the S & P 500 cracks above 1400. I still have a strong feeling that we may go 1245-1255 before rebounding.

My current position in the Thrift Savings Plan is:

G Fund- 0%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 50%
S Fund- 50%
I Fund- 0%

Thoughts or comments?

Interfund Transfer Calling your Name?

I have decided to make an Interfund Transfer this morning due to the soft markets and higher energy prices.

My new position as of the close on 10-Jun-08 will be:

G Fund- 0%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 50%
S Fund-50%
I Fund- 0%

One item to note:
I will stay away from the I Fund in the near term due to the volatility of the U.S. Dollar.

Opportunities Are Everywhere!

For all of you that worry about the price of oil and gas, please watch this video.

Now back to reality, the markets took a "body slam" last week as the money makers took some dollars off of the table. So what does that mean for investors? OPPORTUNITY

I have stated over and over that the stock market is a market of opportunity. Given the correct amount of risk and knowledge, there is the potential to make a nice profit.

While I may not be a market maker (Fund Manager, Analyst, etc.) I have done pretty well in my opinion. I have just taken a small amount of risk over the inception of the site and shown all of you how easy it is to turn over the TSP Funds and make a profit.

With the above stated, I will once again be entering back into the stock market sometime this week. For those that have not subscribed to the Free E-Mail Alert on the right side of the page, I would highly recommend doing so if you want to be updated on future post.

My current position as of the market close on 06-Jun-08:

G Fund-100%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 0%
S Fund- 0%
I Fund- 0%

Comments are welcome......

Returns Updated for the Month of May

I have updated my Monthly Returns for the month of May.

My goal for the month of June will be at least another one percent, anything above and beyond is "money in the bank."

I would like to thank the following people for their continued support:

Ted S.
Don P.
Michael S.
Thomas B.
Bill S.

If you feel that this site has helped you or wish to make a donation, please use the Paypal Link on the right side of the page.

As of 02-Jun-2008, my position in the Thrift Savings Plan is:

G Fund- 100%
F Fund- 0%
C Fund- 0%
S Fund- 0%
I Fund- 0%

Comments or Questions?

Update to Interfund Transfer

I have decided today that I will exit the market and find a different entry point. With the price of crude oil on the decline, I have a chance to exit the market and hold onto a quick profit.

My position as of the close on 29-May-08:

100% G Fund

Where are you positioned in the Thrift Savings Plan?